- Oil is a finite resource. How long can supply keep up with demand?
- A recent industry taskforce estimates that availability is likely to peak around 2013 (8)
- The last year that new discoveries of oil exceeded consumption was 1990. (2)
- Reported world oil reserves were down in 2007 from 2006, despite reduced consumption
- Many experts think that the oil producing nations inflate their figures, reporting stable reserves year after year regardless of consumption (3)
- Demand is increasing, especially in the Far East. Over the last ten years, China's consumption increased 88% and India 48%. Together they already uses 13% of the world's oil
- What happens when there isn't enough to go round?
- It will be a seller's market - prices will go through the roof. How much are you prepared to pay?
- Currently, Europe gets half its oil from the Middle East and the Former Soviet Union.
- What about North Sea Oil?
- UK oil production peaked in 1999 and is down by nearly half. We have been a net importer since 2006.
- We need to cut down our fossil fuel usage anyway because of climate change. Can't we use renewables instead?
- Oil is the hardest one to replace because it is such a perfect transport fuel.
- We can't grow enough biofuels here.
- If all the UK's set aside land was converted to grow rape for biodiesel, it would produce about 4% of UK's current diesel consumption. (4) After that, we have to choose between fuel and food.
- Increasing biofuel production across the globe is already a major factor behind the recent increasing food prices(6) (7)
- and clearing forest or draining marshland generates more greenhouse gases than is saved by 25-35 years of biofuel production on that land.[(5)
- What about electric cars or fuel cell vehicles?
- Why don't you have an electric car now? Anyway, we will struggle to generate enough renewable electricity for our current consumption, never mind transport as well. But it's certainly a thought.
- What will this mean to me?
- Higher food prices (think tractors as well as food miles), higher transport costs, higher heating costs, higher prices for imported goods ...
- So what can we do?
- We need to adjust!
- This isn't just cutting down on foreign holidays by plane - though that will help
- If we start now we can evolve our economy to be more resilient, with diverse local industries, efficient and sustainable use of resources. This is transition.
For more information, follow the links on our Peak Oil Links page
References
(1) BP statistical Review of World Energy
(2) Jeremy Leggett's Peak Oil Presentation
(3) World Energy Outlook 2005 Middle East and North Africa Highlights
(4) Biodiesel Production (Energy Systems Research Unit, University of Strathclyde)
(5) New Scientist Dec 2007: Bog barons: Indonesia's carbon catastrophe
(6) UN Food and Agriculture Organisation The ten most Frequently Asked Questions about the recent rise in food prices
(7) The Guardian July 2008 Secret report: biofuel caused food crisis
(8) Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security
